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《亚洲农业研究(英文版)》 2009-08
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Prediction of the Cultivated Land Demand Based on Logistic Equation——A Case of Zhejiang Province,China

QIAO Rui-bo1,LI Yu-ping1,CAI Yun-long2 1.Department of Geography,Xintai Institute,Xingtai 054001,China;2.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China  
Regional situation of Zhejiang Province and connotation of Logistic Equation are introduced.According to the relevant statistical data from 1978 to 2006,dynamic change and its driving forces of cultivated land area in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.Firstly,since the year 1978,cultivated land area has shown a significant fluctuant decreasing trend in Zhejiang Province,China.Secondly,cultivated land at the two stages of 1984-1988 and 1990-1995 decreases sharply.Large area of cultivated land is occupied by non-agricultural construction.Thirdly,economic development,population growth and agricultural scientific and technological development are the main driving forces.Contradiction between land and human beings becomes more acute;and the load of cultivated land becomes increasingly heavy.Fourthly,cumulative reduction area of cultivated land changes with time,showing a "S"-shaped curve and according with the Logistic Equation.Change of cultivated land of Jiangsu Province in future is forecasted by Logistic Equation.Result shows that the cumulative reduction area of cultivated land will stop increasing until the year 2020 with the total reduction area of 90.91 thousand hectares.Cultivated area of Zhejiang Province will either be stable at the level of 1 498.24 thousand hectares or will fluctuate around it.With the development of industrial structure,encroachment of urbanization and industrialization on cultivated land is not ever-increasing,but will tend to stop at a certain stage.Overall consideration on land use demand for food safety and for urbanization and industrialization may become possible with the advancement of technology and the increase of land inputs.
【Fund】: Supported by the Special Foundation for Scientific and Technological Basal Work (2007FY140800)
【CateGory Index】: F301.21
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