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《亚洲农业研究(英文版)》 2009-Z1
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Target Prediction of Cultivated Land Resources Based on Influencing Factors and Time Series Model——A Case of Anqiu City, China

WU Jun1,2, CHENG Yu1 1. College of Population, Resource and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China; 2. College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Qufu 273165, China  
Taking Anqiu City, Shandong Province, China as an example, dynamic change of cultivated land resources of Anqiu City is analyzed from the aspects of the quantitative change of cultivated land resources, the structural change of cultivated land resources, and the regional differences of cultivated land change. Based on the land demand prediction of grain demand, the land demand prediction of economic crop production, and the land requirement goal, factors affecting the requirement goals of cultivated land resources are discussed. Linear Prediction Model and Polynomial Forecasting Model are used to discuss the goal forecast of cultivated land resources based on time series, which provides basis for decision making of land use in Anqiu City within planning period. Result shows that total area of cultivated land increases year by year and the per capita cultivated land is relatively stable. Proportion of irrigated cultivated land in cultivated land is decreasing gradually and that of dryland is increasing. Dynamic change of cultivated among township streets shows no significant regional differences. Due to the increase of population, per capita cultivated land will be under great pressure and the situation of cultivated land is still not optimistic.
【CateGory Index】: F301.21;F224
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