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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2006-05
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Study on Ecological Agriculture Groundwater Level Forecast Based on Grey Theory BP Neural Network and D-S Theory

ZHU Chun-jiang et al(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098)  
In this article the grey D-S BP neural network model that is composed of grey GM(1,1) model,BP neural network model and D-S theory was used to forecast ecological agriculture groundwater level of Zaozhuang Regional in Shandong Province.The method was to take the forecast value of GM(1,1) model as the input and the output of BP neural network model respectively according to the compounding rule by using the former two-year forecasted data to forecast to the data of later year data,then to take the output of BP neural network as BPAF(Basic Probability Assignment Function) to fuse information twice by using D-S theory.And also the real data of groundwater level were taken to validate this model.The result indicated that this model had feasibility and practicability.This model provided scientific evidence for ecological agriculture planning and development.
【CateGory Index】: P641.7
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