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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2008-04
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Simulation and Analysis of Structural Changes of Land System in Huanghuai-hai Plain

DENG Xiang-zheng et al (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101)  
The structural change law of land system in Huang-huai-hai Plain in 1988～2000 were studied.Through establishing space dominant econometric model on the scale of 1 km grid,the mechanism of driving the structural change of land system by factors such as natural factor,social factor and economic factor were quantificationally analyzed.Combined with different situations of land system structural changes on each grid of 1 km,the structural change law of land system on each grid of 1 km in Huang-huai-hai Plain in 2000～2020 was simulated.The research indicated that the structural changes of land system in Huang-huai-hai Plain 1988～2000 was mainly transfer from the cultivated land to urban residential land and industrial and mining land and the forest land showed an increasing trend.Although land system structural succession had difference under reference situation,ecological protection situation and economic development situation in 2000～2020,the trend of the decrease of cultivated land,the increase of construction land and forest land was main direction of land system structural changes.
【Key Words】： Land system Structural change Land use Dynamic simulation Huang-huai-hai plain
【Fund】： 国家自然科学基金项目(70503025);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-305-2KSCX2-YW-N-039);; 国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC08B03;2006BAC08B06);; 科技部国际合作项目(2006DFB919201)
【CateGory Index】： F301
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