Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2008-14
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

ARMA Forecast Model of Tar of Cigarette Smoke

LU Ming et al(Technology Center of China Tobacco Fujian Industrial Corporation,Xiamen,Fujian 361022)  
[Objective] The study aimed to provide a base for computer-aided formula design.[Method] With the tar of cigarettes from different batches of cigarettes with the same trademark as tested materials and by using time series sequence method,the forecast model of tar of cigarette smoke was built and validated.[Result] Among forecast models,the values of AIC,LF and FPE were all least in ARMA(2,2)model,namely(1-1.622 q-1+0.844 q-2) y(t) =(1-1.836 q-1 + 1.02 q-2) e(t),so it was selected as forecast model for tar of cigarette smoke.The established ARMA(2,2)model was significantly effective model according to autocorrelation check of the residuals on the model residual sequence.The forecast precision of ARMA(2,2)model reached 99.51% and the average relative error was 0.49%,so the ARMA(2,2)model belonged to the first grade model(excellent model).However,time series model was usually used for short-term forecast but not for long-term forecast.[Conclusion] The forecast model of tar of cigarettes smoke built in this study had a better precision,lower error and could beused for short-term forecast of the tar of cigarettes smoke.
【CateGory Index】: TS411
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 LIANG Yan,XIA Le-tian (School of Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 200098,China);Application and Research of the Time Series ARMA Model[J];Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science);2012-08
2 NIU Hui-wei1,XU Zi-cheng1,LI Qing-chang2,WANG Long-xian3,SHAO Hui-fang1,JIAO Jing-hua3(1.College of Tobacco Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China;2.Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute of China Tobacco Corporation,Zhengzhou 450001,China;3.Liaoning Provincial Tobacco Corporation of China Tobacco Corporation,Shenyang 110012,China);Model for predicting tar content of flue-cured tobacco based on ridge regression analysis[J];Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Natural Sciences);2012-03
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 Cao Xianhua Wu Meiping Hu XiaopingCollege of Engine-electronic and Automation,National University of Defence Technology,Changsha 410073,China;Application of Matlab in Modeling of FOG Random Drift[J];Aerospace Control;2007-01
2 HAN Lu-yue,DU Xing-jian (Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shanxi 710049, China);Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Based on Matlab[J];Computer Simulation;2005-04
3 YANG Zai-bo~1,YE Chong~2,HAN Wei~2,ZHONG Cai-ning~1,SUN Cheng-bin~1,MAO Hai-li~~1(1.Department of Chemistry;Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities;Duyun 558000,China;2.Technology of the centre GuiZhou huangguoshu tobacco group GuiYang 550003,Chnia);Application of BP Artificial Neural Network Forcasting the Cigarette Tar[J];Journal of Qiannan Normal College for Nationalities;2006-06
4 HU Yonghong1,2,WU Zhifeng1,3,LI Dingqiang1,3,ZHUO Muning1,3 1.South China Institute of Botany,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510650,China;2.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China;3.Guangdong Institute of Ecology and Environmental and Soil Science,Guangzhou 510650,China;Measuring sustainable development of water resources with aquatic ecological footprint in Guangzhou based on ARIMA model[J];Ecology and Environment;2006-01
5 ;Study on the Factors Affecting Cigarette Tar Yields[J];Tobacco Science & Technology;2000-11
6 ZHANG ZHI-GANG, WANG ER-BIN, and SU DONG-YINGXinzheng Cigarette Factory, Xinzheng 451150, Henan, China;Linear Regression Correlation Analysis between Tar Delivery and Routine Chemical Components of Cigarettes[J];Tobacco Science & Technology;2003-11
7 WANG Guo feng 1 ,WANG Zi liang 2,WANG Tai yong 1,WANAG Shuang li 1(1.School of Material Science and Engineering ,Tianjin University ,Tianjin 300072,China;2.School of Mechanical Engineering,Tianjin 300191,China);Application of Matlab in time series analysis[J];Applied Science and Technology;2003-05
8 XU Ya-jing~1, WANG Yuan-zheng~1, WANG Jian-min~2, HUANG Song-qi~1(1.Dept.of Infor.and Computation Sci.,Zhengzhou Univ.of Light Ind.,Zhengzhou 450002, China;2.Dept.of Food and Biology Eng.,Zhengzhou Univ.of Light Ind.,Zhengzhou 450002, China);Mathematics model of estimating tar content in cigarettes[J];Journal of Zhengzhou Institute of Light Industry;2005-03
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 YE Yong,GUO Zixiong(College of Civil Engineering,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou 362021,China);Grey relational analysis of parameters on bond between GFRP rods and concrete[J];Sichuan Building Science;2011-06
2 TIAN Li,ZHANG Yu-cheng,CHEN Jun,WANG Jun(Dept.of Elec.Engn.,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Wuhu,241000 China);The application of adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system based on the gray theory in economy forecasting[J];Journal of Anhui University of Technology and Science(Natural Science);2006-02
3 WU Yan-lei(Dept.of Appl.Math.&Phy.,Anhui University of Technology and Science,Wuhu 241000,China);Study of electricity consumption of daily life based on grey theory[J];Journal of Anhui University of Technology and Science(Natural Science);2008-01
4 CHENG Jin-shi,PEI Jiu-fang(1.Coll.of Mana.Engn.,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China;2.Coll.of Mech.& Auto.Engn.,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China);Research on 3PL enterprise logistics ability based on grey appraisal theory[J];Journal of Anhui Polytechnic University;2011-01
5 LIAN Tong-hui(Coll.of Mana.Engn.,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China);Analysis of H-W-B test area industry effects based on grey hierarchy decision[J];Journal of Anhui Polytechnic University;2011-03
6 XUE Tong-zhan,WAN Guo-ming(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China);Bilinear time series model of urban demand dynamic forecasting[J];Journal of Anhui Institute of Architecture;2005-06
7 GUO Hai-yang et al (Trade College of Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071001);Analysis of the Relationship between the Change of Cultivated Land and Grain Yield in Hebei Province[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2006-21
8 ZHOU Hui-jie et al (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Guangxi Teachers Education University, Nanning, Guangxi 530001);Evaluation of the Regional Eco-economy Construction Index System[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2007-26
9 WU Xiao-fang et al(Nanchang City Land Reserve Center,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330038);Analysis of Driving Factor of Cultivated Land Change Based on Gray CorreLation Model[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2007-36
10 SONG Xiao-li et al(Management College of Hainan University,Danzhou,Hainan 571737);Analysis and Comparison on Cultivated Land Consolidation Potential of Cities and Counties in Hainan Province[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2008-05
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Xu Jia Li Qing (Institute of Intelligence Control,University of Beijing Information Science & Technology,No.35,North 4th Ring Middle Road, Chaoyang District,Beijing,100101 China);UAV Strapdown Inertia Combination Modeling and Filtering Method Research[A];[C];2011
2 ZHANG Ping, GU Li-ze, YANG Yi-xian (Information Security Center, Bejing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China; State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China);Grey Clustering Evaluation Model and Its Application in Security Evaluation[A];[C];2006
3 MENG Limin~①YAN Guiquan~②(①Guizhou University,Guiyang 550003)(②Guizhou Academy of Sciences,Guiyang 550003);THE APPLICATION OF MGM(1,n)MODEL TO FORECAST THE DYNAMIC VARIATION OF THE GROUNDWATER LEVEL[A];[C];2006
4 LI Jian-lan HUANG Shu-hong Huazhong Univ.of Sci. & Tech,Wuhan 430074,China;Grey Model of Condition Evaluation of Equipment in Power Plant[A];[C];2007
5 College of Economics and Management of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;Credit Rating for Grey-Clustering Small and Medium Enterprises and Its Applications[A];[C];2009
6 MI Chuan-min,LIU Si-feng, JIANG Ke-shen College of Economics & Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 210016,China.;Empirical studies on the relationship between financial development and economic growth based on the degree of grey incidences[A];[C];2005
7 Zheng Deling~1, liu cong~1, Fang Wei~2, Fang Tong~3(1. School of Information Engineering. University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing. 100083; 2. Sunniwell Broadband Digital Science & Technology Ltd, Beijing, 100083; 3. Sino-US Metlife Insurance Co., Ltd., Beijing, 100738);Combining forecasting model based on Grey theory and artificial neural network[A];[C];2005
8 Li Xiao-mei~1 Zhou Hui~1 Wang Wei~1 Bai Xue-Ying~2 (1.School of Electrical Engineering,Northern Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044;2.Beijing Power Supply Bureau,Beijing 100031);Study of Grey Prediction Model for Yearly Peak Load Occurring Dates[A];[C];2003
9 LU Yun-feng,WEN Zhen-zhong (1.School of life science & technology Nanyang normal university,Nanyang Henan 473061;2. College of Pingdingshan; Pingdingshan Henan 467000; China);Application of Entropy Weight-based Gray systematic Theory to Integrated Evaluation in the Growth Performance of Crossbred Beef Cattle[A];[C];2010
10 Tao Li China University of Mining and Technology,CUMT Xuzhou City,China Li Haibo China University of Mining and Technology,CUMT Xuzhou City,China Chen Yitao China University of Mining and Technology,CUMT Xuzhou City,China.;Research of Gray Neural Network[A];[C];2010
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 JU Hao,OU Jia-fu,SHAO Yi-min(China Automobile Engineering Research Institute,Chongqing 400039,China);The Application of ARMA Prediction Algorithms on the Diagnosis of Drive Axle Gear Fault[J];Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science);2012-02
2 LIU Guo qi (College of Health Management, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China);Cause of multi-collinearity and its diagnosis and treatment[J];Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science);2001-04
3 NI Li-jun,ZENG Xiao-hong,ZHANG Li-guo(School of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China);KNN-KSR Mathematical Modeling Method and Its Application on Prediction of Mainstream Smoke of Cigarettes[J];Journal of East China University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition);2008-04
4 DENG Xiao-hua1,4,ZHOU Ji-heng1*,LI Xiao-zhong2,WANG Yong3,YANG Hong-qi1,CHEN Xin-lian2,JIE Xiao2,ZHANG Yi-yang1(1.Research Center of Tobacco Engineering and Technology,HNAU,Changsha 410128,China;2.Hunan Province Tobacco Company,Changsha 410007,China;3.Technology Center,Changde Cigarette Factory,Changde,Hunan 415000,China;4.Yongzhou Vocational and Technical College,Yongzhou,Hunan 425100,China);Correlation and characteristics of chemical components of flue-cured tobacco in Hunan[J];Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Natural Sciences);2007-01
5 Ma Xiong-wei (College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan,Hubei,430070);Diagnosis and Empirical Analysis on Multicollinearity in Linear Regression Model[J];Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition);2008-02
6 FAN Yu-mei,XUAN Jing(School of Applied Science,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083);Application of ARMA Model to GDP Prediction[J];Journal of Jiangnan University(Natural Science Edition);2010-06
7 Li Yanqiang~(1,2) Xiang Bingren~1 Qu Lingbo~3 Wu Yongjun~3 Tang Gangling~2 (1.Analysis and Determination Center of China Pharmaceutical University,Nanjing,210009,Jiangsu,China; 2.Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute of CNTC,Zhengzhoum,450001,Henan,China; 3.Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,450053,Henan,China);Predication studies of mainstream cigarette smoke constituents by BP-ANN[J];Computers and Applied Chemistry;2006-09
8 XU Ye-mao,JIN Sun,ZHAO Yong,YE Liang (School of Mechanical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China);Research on model of technology innovation capability evaluation of enterprisebase on ridge regression[J];Machinery Design & Manufacture;2007-10
9 DENG Xiao-hua~(1,2),ZHOU Ji-heng~(2*),LI Xiao-zhong~3,CHEN Xinlian~3,XIAO Han-qian~3,YANG Hong-qi~2 (1.Yongzhou Vocational and Technical College,Yongzhou 425100,China;2.Research Center of Tobacco Engineering and Technology Hunan Agricultural University ,Changsha 410128,China;3.Tobacco Company of Hunan Province,Changsha 410000,China);Grey Incidence Analysis on Correlation Between Different Quality Evaluating Index and Tar Content in Flue-cured Tobacco[J];Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis;2006-06
10 AI De-chun1,HAN Ke-qi2(1.Department of Resource and Mining Engineering,Liupanshui Teacher's College,Liupanshui 553004,China;2.College of Mining Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China);Study on Prediction at China's Coal Production Quality Based on ARMA Model[J];Coal Technology;2011-11
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ZHANG Zhi qiang 1?2 , XU Zhong min 1, CHENG Guo dong 1, CHEN Dong jing 1 (1 State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,CAS,Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 Scientific;The Ecological Footprints of the 12 Provinces of West China in 1999[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;2001-05
2 ;Application of MATLAB in Dynamic Data Modeling[J];Computer Development & Applications;2001-10
3 WANG Xiao-ying,DU Jiang,ZHANG Hong-yan,REN Jin-song(Northeast Research Institute of Electronic Technology,Jinzhou 121000,China);Research on Modeling Method Based on Matlab Language[J];Electro-optics & Passive Countermeasures;2005-05
4 SUN Jing (School of Economic and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 ,China);State in Control for Autocorrelated Process[J];Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management;2003-02
5 GAO Chang-bo1, , ZHANG Shi-xi1, MO Chuang-rong1, CHEN Xin-geng1 2 1. School of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China 2. Guangdong College of Industrial Technology, Guangzhou 510300, China;Measuring sustainable development with the ecological footprint analysis in Guangdong province[J];;2005-01
6 ZHONGKe jun ,JIANGLa mei,HUANGJian guo (Changdecigarettefactory ,Changde 4 150 0 0 ,China);Study on Comprehensive Technology of Reducing Tar Yields of Cigarette[J];Tobacco Science & Technology;2001-02
7 WANGJian min1,XIANGYong bo2;The Correlation bet ween Cigarette Size and TPM[J];Tobacco Science & Technology;2001-02
8 ZHANG ZHI-GANG, WANG ER-BIN, and SU DONG-YINGXinzheng Cigarette Factory, Xinzheng 451150, Henan, China;Linear Regression Correlation Analysis between Tar Delivery and Routine Chemical Components of Cigarettes[J];Tobacco Science & Technology;2003-11
9 LIU Guifu,XING Yanli,ZHANG Shuxia (Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China);Investigation on the Modeling of Fiber Optic Gyro Bias Instability[J];Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology;2001-03
10 WU Li-hua, LING Lin-ben (Tianjin Navigation Instrument Research Institute, Tianjin 300131,China);Modeling of Gyro Drift and Realizing in MATLAB[J];Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology;2004-06
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved