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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2009-01
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Agrometeorological Dynamic Forecasting Models for Epidemic Degree of Fusarium graminearum

YUAN Chang-hong et al (Taizhou Meteorological Bureau,Taizhou,Jiangsu 225300)  
[Objective] The aim was to establish the dynamic forecasting models for occurrence degree of Fusarium graminearum in Taizhou area.[Method] With the occurrence degree of F.graminearum in Taizhou area in 1987-2006 as the research object and a period of ten days as the time span,the forecasting factors with higher correlation coefficient and good stability were selected and the dynamic forecasting models for occurrence degree of F.graminearum in Taizhou area was established on the basis of the stepwise regression method.[Result] The factors influencing the occurrence degree of F.graminearum in Taizhou area was mainly the average relative humidity in the late April and middle May.From the whole meteorological condition,the 2 meteorological conditions of the precipitation days and the average relative humidity were the meteorological inducements for the occurrence of F.graminearum.The examination of the forecasting mode showed that the forecasting effect of the model was ideal.[Conclusion] The research provided the basis for the effective control of the F.graminearum.
【Fund】: 泰州市政府科学技术基金项目(TL0604);; 江苏省气象局科技项目(200621);; 泰州市气象局科技项目(200602)
【CateGory Index】: S435.121
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【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 ZHANG Xu-hui et al(The Meteorological Observatory of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210008);Study on Prediction Model of Meteorological Grades for Wheat Scab[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2008-23
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