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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2009-14
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Analysis of Climatic Change Characteristics and Impact on Grain Yield in the Northwest Arid and Semi-arid Transition Region in the Recent 50 Years

GAO Rong et al(Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of C M A,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020)  
According to meteorological data and grain yield data,using linear trend and mutation analysis and other methods,the study makes an analysis and the result showed that the annual precipitation presented a significant decreasing trend in the arid and semi-arid transition region in the recent 50 years.In term of seasons,the annual precipitation increased slightly in winter and spring,and decreased in summer and autumn,it appeared in decreasing mutation of autumn precipitation in 1986.According to the decadal change,severe decline has arisen in the past 10 years.Air temperature presented a significant increased trend and it was much higher than the national average increase,it has a significant mutation in 1994.In each season,the seasonal warming was the most significant in winter.Therefore the transformation from cold and wet to warm and dry is the main character of climatic change in the arid and semi-arid transition region.Influenced by climate warming and drying,grain meteorological yield presented a significant decreasing trend.Decreasing amplitude presented aggravated in recent years.Grain yield prediction model was established by using stepwise regression method.
【Fund】: 甘肃省气象局2007年青年优秀人才基金资助
【CateGory Index】: S162
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