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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2009-15
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Study of Space-time Regression Prediction on Occurrence Quantity of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker

CHEN Hui-hua et al(Xianju Forestry Bureau in Zhejiang Province,Xianju,Zhejiang 317300)  
[Objective] The study was to provide the theoretical basis for controlling the damage of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker.[Method] With pest investigation data and meteorological data of Xianju Country Zhejiang Province in 1 983.9~1 989.9 as the researched object,the dynamic variation of insect appearance areas of D.punctatus with the change of meteorological factors,time and spatial in each investigation point was studied.,and then the space-time regression prediction model on occurrence quantity of D.punctatus was established.The insect appearance areas of 3 generation D.punctatus in 1989 was forecasted and tested with the established model.[Result] Totally 1 linear and 8 nonlinear space-time regression prediction models on occurrence quantity of D.punctatus were established.The actual villages that damaged by 3 generation D.punctatus and the insect appearance areas were 141,143,138 and 4 533.1,4 181.3,5 166.0 hm2 resp.and the villages that damaged by 3 generation D.punctatus predicted by 9 models were 193,and the insect appearance areas predicted by linear model were 3 978.5,4 159.5,3 427.5 hm2 resp.the prediction results of nonlinear model on insect appearance areas of 3 generation D.punctatus were 71.686 8,99.835 9,119.947 8 hm2 different with the actual.[Conclusion] The prediction accuracy of the established models on insect appearance areas of D.punctatus were all 66.7%.
【Fund】: 浙江省仙居县科技局《仙居县林业主要有害生物数值预报的研究》内容(200628)
【CateGory Index】: S763.7
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