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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2009-17
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Study on the Classified Prediction of Damage Degree of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker

XIANG Yun-fei et al (Xianju Forestry Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Xianju,Zhejiang 317300)  
Based on the correlation coefficient method,the meteorological factors with very close correlation with the damage area of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker at all damage degree were selected.5 kinds of mathematical models of the classified prediction of the damage degree of D.punctatus were set up,including multivariate regression model,impulse response function model,linear difference equation model,dual-selective stepwise regression model and artificial neural network model.The results showed that 5 kinds of classified prediction models were used to test the prediction results of 16 samples in 4 years and better prediction effects could be obtained.The prediction effect of linear difference equation model,especially linear auto-regression model with input item was the best,followed by artificial neural network model,and the prediction effect of dual-selective stepwise regression model was the worst.
【Fund】: 仙居县科技局《仙居县林业主要有害生物数值预报的研究》内容(200628)
【CateGory Index】: S763
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