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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2009-34
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Analysis on Temporal Variation Tendency of Cultivated Land Area in Tianshui City Gansu Province

MENG Min et al(School of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000)  
In order to know the relationship between economic development and cultivated land variation deeply,the driving force of the change was analyzed by selecting data related to cultivated land area and population in Tianshui City from 1949 to 2007 and using SPSS principle components analysis.The results showed that the main factors influencing the area change are economic development,population growth and policies.With excel software as a platform,a gray fuzzy forecast was done for the cultivated land.The prediction result showed that the area of cultivated land in Tianshui City still takes on the characteristic of a gradually decreasing trend in next 10 years.However,with the increasing land demand for meeting the need of socio-economic development,the situation is not optimistic.Finally,the article advanced some advices for the sustainable use of the cultivated land in Tianshui city.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40671051)
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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