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Study on Fog Climate Characteristic and Forecasting Method in East of Hexi Corridor

YANG Xiao-ling et al(Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster in Gansu Province,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction,Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020)  
Using fog meteorological data of five stations of Wuwei in east of Hexi Corridor from 1961 to 2008,geography distribution and climate characteristic of fog were analyzed with statistical method.The results showed that fog has the obvious region characteristic,fog days are more in mountainous area than sichuan area and are more in south than in north.Fog assumes reducing tendency year by year.Fog occurring frequency is the highest from July to October in one year.Fog occurring centralized time is form 20:00 to next day 08:00 in one day.Selecting of ECMWF numerical forecast grid field,factor was initially elected with Press criterion,factor was selected with stepwise regression forecast method.The fog forecasting equation was built with optimal subset regression.The overall situation and the most superior significance equations of fog forecasting were ascertained finally for spring,summer and autumn.Fitting rate of three seasonal forecasting equation are 85.5%,82.1%,81.2% respectively,which will provide objective and effective instruction products for forecasting service.
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