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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2010-09
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Variation Character of Xichang City's Precipitation Time Series Based on Wavelet Analysis

LIU Zhan-ming et al (Faculty of Resources & Environment,Guangxi Teachers University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001)  
Based on the rainfall data of Xichang City from 1951 to 2008,linear regression analysis method and wavelet analysis method of Morlet were used to analyze seasonal and annual periodical regulations at different time scales of the precipitation time series during the latest 58 years in Xichang City. We also predicted the precipitation of Xichang City in short and medium period. The results showed that in recent 58 years the precipitation of Xichang City has a decreasing trend,with rates of-2.300 mm/10 Year. Different seasons have different amplitude,with the rates increasing 5.711 mm/10 Year in spring,while decreasing 9.635 mm/10 Year in autumn,but the rate fluctuates slightly in other seasons. The seasonal and annual precipitation present the character of periodical regulations at different time scales of the precipitation time series,and multiple time series nest one another. The oscillator period for each season is 4 35 years in spring,3,15 42 years in summer,3,7,11 and 18 years in autumn,4,15 years in winter,3,7,15 and 22 years for annual precipitation. The predicting results of precipitation changing depends not only on different time series but also on the phase of specific years.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40661005);; 广西自然科学基金项目(0832-021Z);; 973项目(2006CB403201);; 广西研究生教育创新计划项目(2009106030705M04)
【CateGory Index】: S161.6
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