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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2010-13
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Projection of Climate Change in Anhui Province during the 21~(st) Century

WEN Hua-yang et al (Anhui Provincial Climate Centre,Hefei,Anhui 230031)  
A new monthly climate data set was distributed by National Climate Center,which was interpolated and summarized from different output data sets of Global Circulation Models in IPCC-AR4. Validation analysis indicated that this data set is well consistent with the observation of temperature in Anhui Province while the estimate of precipitation has large uncertainties. Based on the data set,we evaluated the climate changes in Anhui Province under SRES A1B scenario during the 21st century. Results indicated that this region will experience a warmer and wetter climate in the 21st century. Annual mean air temperature will increase at the rate of 0.38℃per 10 years. Most intense warming trend is projected to occur in winter while the slowest in summer. Spatial pattern showed that the warming trend increase along the southeast to northwest. During the 21st century,annual precipitation increase with the rate of 1.1% per 10 years. Large interannual variability of precipitation is predicted in the early of the 21st century. Seasonal pattern indicated that a higher increase will occur in winter while the autumn precipitation will decrease. Flood season will get more precipitation but the proportion of its to the annual precipitation will not change significantly. The increase rate of precipitation in the north is higher than the south. In general,the future change of the air temperature and precipitation will significantly impact the difference of annual temperature,the distribution of drought and flood,and the probability of extreme climate events like extreme precipitation.
【Fund】: 中国气象局2009年气候变化专项(CCSF-09-10)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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