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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2010-21
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Prediction of Climate Change in the 21st Century in Dalian under Various Emission Scenarios

CHENG Xiang-kun et al(School of Ocean Environment,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong 266003)  
By means of the output of more than 20 GCM models provided by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC-AR4),the situation of climate change in Dalian in the next 100 years under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios(SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1)were analyzed.The results showed that the climate in Dalian would have a warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century;the linear tendency of temperature changes would range from 2.45 to 3.46 ℃ per 100 years;precipitation increase would range from 5.8% to 16.3% per 100 years.The largest range of warming would be in winter,while the largest increase of precipitation would be in winter and spring;the decrease of precipitation would be in autumn in the early 21st century.Considering the effect of SRES A2,SRES A1B,and SRES B1,tmperature in Dalian would increase by 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃,respectively and precipitation would increase by 16.30%,11.80%,and 5.79% at the end of the 21st century.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(40971294);; 辽宁省教育厅人文社科一般项目(2009A405);; 大连市科技局科技计划项目(2008E-13SF189)、(2009E11SF230)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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