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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2010-35
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Gray Forecasting on Autumn Drought in Xuzhou

ZHANG Li-hua et al(Xuzhou Meteorological Office,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221002)  
Using the fall precipitation of Xuzhou during 1960-2009,Z-index was obtained and the drought index was determined.The drought year sequence was determined by using drought index.Different dimensions of autumn drought disaster sequence were obtained.Using m-GM(1,1),the occurrence of autumn drought forecasting model in Xuzhou was established and the prediction result was grey interval.It was proposed that the grey interval should be whitened by using frequency.The occurrence year of the next drought was confirmed,so as to provide some reference value for the prediction research of autumn drought in Xuzhou.
【CateGory Index】: S423
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