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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2011-06
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Evaluation of T213 L31 Numerical Forecast Products

SHANG Ke-zheng et al(Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000)  
The forecast of the height field,temperature field,wind field,vertical velocity field and water vapour field at each isobaric surface of troposphere in East Asia from 2003 to 2008 was evaluated by using T213 L31 numerical forecast products of National Meteorological Center.As shown by the results,the precipitation of high credibility(correlation coefficient of climate anomaly is above 0.6) reached 6-7 days in forecasting the height field of middle and upper troposphere and 5 days of middle and lower troposphere;4 days in forecasting the temperature field of middle and upper troposphere and 5 days of middle and lower troposphere;5 days in forecasting the wind field of upper troposphere,4 days of middle troposphere and 3 days of lower troposphere;1-2 days in forecasting the vertical velocity field;2 days in forecasting the water vapor field of middle troposphere and 3-4 days of lower troposphere.As concluded from the above results,the prescription of the credibility of climate situation and weather process forecast was 5-7 days;while that of the near-surface weather system forecast was 3-5 days;and that of the precipitation forecast was 1-3 days.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC53B02)、(2007BAC29B03)
【CateGory Index】: S165
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