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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2011-22
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Short-time Forecast Method of Minimum Temperature in the North Area of Fujian in Winter

WEN Gui-fang et al(Wuyishan Meteorological Bureau in Fujian Province,Wuyishan,Fujian 354300)  
[Objective] The research aimed to study the short-time forecast method of minimum temperature in winter in the north area of Fujian.[Method] By analyzing the variation trends and distribution characteristics of extremely and average minimum temperatures in the north of Fujian in winter during 1969-2008,the relative meteorological factors which affected the low temperature weather in winter were found.The influences of relative meteorological factors on the minimum temperature in winter and the forecast method of minimum temperature were summarized by combining with the climate characteristics in the north of Fujian.[Result] The minimum temperature in Guangze and Pucheng in the north of northern Fujian was the lowest.The second one was in Shaowu,Wuyishan,Jianyang,Songxi and Zhenghe.The minimum temperature in Jian'ou and Shunchang was higher and was the highest in Yanping.The minimum temperature depended mainly on the temperature reduction degree from the afternoon to the night.The temperature reduction degree varied with the sky condition and cold air intensity.The temperature reduction included the advection,radiation,advection-radiation and non-advection-radiation types.The different temperature reduction characteristics were in the different sky conditions.The forecast of minimum temperature should carry out based on the weather typing.Meanwhile,the key of successful minimum temperature forecast was grasping the shift pathway and speed of cold air.[Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for improving the forecast accuracy of minimum temperature in winter.
【CateGory Index】: S165.2
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