Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)》 2009-05
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

The Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System

CHEN Hong and LIN Zhao-Hui International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China  
The potential predictability of climatological mean circulation and the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) were investigated using hindcast results from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System (IAP DCP),along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from the period of 1980-2000.The large-scale characteristics of the SCSSM monthly and seasonal mean low-level circulation have been well reproduced by IAP DCP,especially for the zonal wind at 850 hPa;furthermore,the hindcast variability also agrees quite well with observations.By introducing the South China Sea summer monsoon index,the potential predictability of IAP DCP for the intensity of the SCSSM has been evaluated.IAP DCP showed skill in predicting the interannual variation of SCSSM intensity.The result is highly encouraging;the correlation between the hindcasted and observed SCSSM Index was 0.58,which passes the 95% significance test.The result for the seasonal mean June-July-August SCSSM Index was better than that for the monthly mean,suggesting that seasonal forecasts are more reliable than monthly forecasts.
【Fund】: jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421407);; the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant Nos.2007BAC29B03 and 2006BAC02B04);; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40605023)
【CateGory Index】: P732.4
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Chen Longxun and Jin ZuhuiInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Acadctnia Sinica;THE MEDIUM-RANGE VARIATIONS OF THE SUMMER MONSOON CIRCULATION SYSTEM OVER EAST ASIA[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1984-02
2 DING Yihui , LI Chongyin , and LIU Yanju National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Overview of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2004-03
3 Lin Zhaohui Zeng Qingcun Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080;Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon by Using an Improved AGCM[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1997-04
4 Li Chongyin and Zhang Liping(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling.for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100029);Summer Monsoon Activities in the South China Sea and Its Impacts[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1999-03
5 YANG Hui(LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing\ 100029,China);Numerical Model Experiment on the Onset of the Summer Monsoon over the South China Sea[J];Chinese Journal of Computation Physics;2003-05
6 Wu Chisheng, Fong Sol-kun, Ku Chi-meng, Wang Anyu, Hao I-pan and Lin Wenshi (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275) (Macau Meteorological and Geophysical Services, Macau);Numerical Simulation of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in 1998[J];Climatic and Environmental Research;2000-04
7 Ma Shujie and Sun Shuqing (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Characteristics of Persistent Anomalies of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon and Its Influences on the Global Atmospheric Circulation[J];Climatic and Environmental Research;2001-04
8 Chen Hong, Lin Zhaohui, and Zhou Guangqing (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029);Experimental Dynamical Prediction of Spring Dust Storm Events in China[J];Climatic and Environmental Research;2004-01
9 Lin Zhaohui, Li Xu, Zhao Yan, Zhou Guangqing, Wang Huijun, Yuan Chongguang, Guo Yufu and Zeng Qingcun (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);An Improved Short-Term Climate Prediction System and Its Application to the Extraseasonal Prediction of Rainfall Anomaly in China for 1998[J];CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH;1998-04
10 REN Xuejuan QIAN Yongfu Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED REGIONAL AIR-SEA MODEL AND ITS NUMERICAL SIMULATION FOR SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998[J];气象学报(英文版);2001-04
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 CHEN Wei et al(Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Institute of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871);Study Progress on Characters of Air-sea Interaction in South China Sea[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-20
2 FENG Sha 1,LIU Qi 1,and FU Yun-Fei 1,2 1 Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing and Climate Environment,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Precipitation under Subtropical High Conditions:Evidence and Implications[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2009-04
3 ZENG Qing-Cun Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Progress and Challenge of the Short-Term Climate Prediction[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2009-05
4 WANG Dong-Xiao 1 , ZHOU Wen 2 , YU Xiao-Li 1,3 , XIE Qiang 1 , and WANG Xin 1,2 1 Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China 2 Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China 3 Weifang Marine and Environment Monitor Center, Weifang 261401, China;Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layers Associated with Summer Monsoon Onset over the South China Sea in 1998[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2010-05
5 LANG Xian-Mei International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029, China;An Effective Approach for Improving the Real-Time Prediction of Summer Rainfall over China[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2011-02
6 LIU Jing-Wei1,2,LI Bo1,2,ZHOU Tian-Jun1,ZENG Xian-Feng1,2,and FENG Lei1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;The Extreme Summer Precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 Simulated by the LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2012-01
7 SUN Zhan-dong1,HUANG Qun1,JIANG Jia-hu1,OPP Christian2 (1.State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;2.Faculty of Geography,University of Marburg,Marburg,Germany);EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION(EOF) AND ITS APPLICATION IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS RECOGNITION AND HYDROLOGICAL EXTREME STUDIES USING TRMM DATA IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN[J];Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin;2012-03
8 LI Xue-ding1,2,SHANG Shao-ling1,2,LU Zhen-bin3(1.State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science,Xiamen 361005,China;2.Key Laboratory of Marine and Estuarine Fisheries,Ministry of Agriculture,Shanghai 200090,China;3.Fujian Fisheries Research Institute,Xiamen 361012,China);Monthly variation of the catchability of Chub Macherel and Round Scad in the southern Taiwan Strait[J];Journal of Marine Sciences;2008-03
9 Bin WangDepartment of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, U.S.A.Yihui DingAcademy of Meteorological Science, State Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China;An Overview of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Monsoon and Mid-Latitude Circulation[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1992-01
10 Yang Xiaosong , Lin Zhaohui Dai Yongjiu and Guo Yufu (LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Validation of IAP94 Land Surface Model over the Huaihe River Basin with HUBEX Field Experiment Data[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2001-01
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 Zeng Qingcun, Lin Zhaohui, Zhou Guangqing Wang Huijun, Zhu Jiang and Yuan Chongguang (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Extra-Seasonal Climate Prediction by Using Dynamical Climate System Model[A];[C];2002
2 Zhang Suping,Liu Qinyu (Shandong Meteorological Institute, Jinan 250031; Ocean University of Qingdao , Qingdao 266003);A Convective Index for the Summer Monsoon in the South China Sea and Its Applications[A];[C];2002
3 Liang Jianyin, Wu Shangsen ( Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology);Study of Southwest Monsoon Onset Date in South China Sea and Its Impact Factors[A];[C];2002
4 Li Weibiao1 Lei Ting1 Wang Dongxiao2,3 and Wang Houjun4 1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China 2 LED, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China 3 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical Ocean and Meteorology, Guangzhou 510080, China 4University of Maryland and NCAR;Vertical Structure and Seasonal Characteristics of Convective and Stratiform Rainfall and Heating over South China Sea Using TRMM Data[A];[C];2006
5 ZHOU Hao1,2, WEN Zhi-ping1, LAN Guang-dong1,2 (1. Research Center for Monsoon and Environment/Department of the Atmospheric Science , Sun Yan-sen University , Guangzhou 510275, China; 2. Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, China.);Diagnosis of Relationships between the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon and the Equatorial Zonal Wind[A];[C];2006
6 WU Nai-Geng1,2,WEN Zhi-Ping2, FENG Ye-Rong1,2, LIN Liang-Xun1, YUAN Zhuo-Jian2, and CHEN Bing-Hong1,2 1 Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080 2 Center for Monsoon and Environment Research/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University,, Guangzhou, 510275;A Quantitative Diagnosis for the Mechanisms of Spring Droughts in Southern China[A];[C];2007
7 (ZHOU Hui1), CHEN Jiang-min1), ZHU Guo-qiang2), LIU Dian-Ying3) DAI Zhe-Jun1) ) ( 1. Hu’nan provincial meteorological observatory, Changsha ,410007, China; 2. Hu’nan provincial meteorological service center, Changsha, 410007, China; 3. Yi’yang meteorological observatory,Yiyang , 413000 );SIMULATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET BASE ON GRAPES MODEL AND EXPERIMENT FOR THE MODEL INITIAL FIELDS[A];[C];2008
8 ZHANG Chuan-jiang ZHANG Chao-mei MA Feng-min ( Jiangxi Climatic Center, Nanchang 330046, China);The Analysis of Circulation Background and Prediction Research of Precipitation in Rainy Season in Jiangxi Province in 2008[A];[C];2009
9 HU Jinggao1,2,ZHOU Bing2,XU Haiming1 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China 2.National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;A Study of Climatological Meiyu Area in China[A];[C];2011
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Guo Qiyun Wang Jiqin (Institute of Geography, Academia Sinica);INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF RAIN SPELL DURINGPREDOMINANT SUMMER MONSOON OVER CHINAFOR RECENT THIRTY YEARS[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;1981-02
2 QUAN Lin sheng, SHI Shao ying, ZHU Ya fen,QIAN Wei hong (Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China);Temporal-Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Causes of Dust-day in China[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;2001-04
3 K.-M. Lau Laboratory for Atmospheres, Code 913, NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA and Song Yang Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA;Climatology\ and\ Interannual\ Variabilityof the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1997-02
4 Luo Shaohua Jin Zuhui(Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Acadcmia Sinica);STATISTICAL ANALYSES FOR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, BEHAVIOR OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WEST PACIFIC AND MONTHLY MEAN RAINFALL OVER THE CHANGJIANG MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;1986-04
5 Chen Lieting(Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences);EFFECT OF ZONAL DIFFERENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE ARABIAN SEA AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON SUMMER RAINFALL OVER THE YANGTZE RIVER[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;1991-01
6 Li Chongyin and Zhang Liping(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling.for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100029);Summer Monsoon Activities in the South China Sea and Its Impacts[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1999-03
7 Wang Huijun, Lang Xianmei, Zhou Guangqing, and Kang Dujuan (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);A Preliminary Report of the Model Prediction on the Forthcoming Winter and Spring Dust Climate over China[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2003-01
8 Zeng Qingcun, Lin Zhaohui, and Zhou Guangqing (International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Dynamical Extraseasonal Climate Prediction System IAP DCP-II[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2003-03
9 Da-Lin Zhang (Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, U.S.A.);Roles of Various Diabatic Physical Processes in Mesoscale Models[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1998-04
10 Yang Hui, Song Zhengshan and Zhu Baozhen ( Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Onset of the Southeast Asia Summer Monsoon in 1979 and the Effect of the Tibetan Plateau[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;1998-06
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved