Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)》 2011-02
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

An Effective Approach for Improving the Real-Time Prediction of Summer Rainfall over China

LANG Xian-Mei International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029, China  
This paper has two purposes. One is to evaluate the ability of an atmospheric general circulation model (IAP9L-AGCM) to predict summer rainfall over China one season in advance. The other is to propose a new approach to improve the predictions made by the model. First, a set of hindcast experiments for summer climate over China during 1982–2010 are performed from the perspective of real-time prediction with the IAP9L-AGCM model and the IAP ENSO prediction system. Then a new approach that effectively combines the hind-cast with its correction is proposed to further improve the model’s predictive ability. A systematic evaluation reveals that the model’s real-time predictions for 41 stations across China show significant improvement using this new approach, especially in the lower reaches between the Yellow River and Yangtze River valleys.
【Fund】: jointly supported by the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest of China Meteorological Administration(GYHY201006022);; the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(2009BAC51B02);; the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB950304)
【CateGory Index】: P412.13
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 LU Ri-Yu 1 , LI Chao-Fan 1 , Se-Hwan YANG 1 , and Buwen DONG 2 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom;The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2012-03
2 LANG Xianmeiand ZHENG Fei International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;A Statistical-Dynamical Scheme for the Extraseasonal Prediction of Summer Rainfall for 160 Observation Stations across China[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2011-06
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Wang Hui jun; Zhou Guangqing ; Zhao Yan ( Laboralory .for Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Science and Gepohysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG ), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences);An Effective Method for Correcting the Seasonal-Interannual Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2000-02
2 ZHU Congwen1,2 , Chung-Kyu PARK2, Woo-Sung LEE4, and Won-Tae YUN3 1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 2Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC), Busan, Republic of Korea 3Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Republic of Korea 4Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Reanalysis, Victoria, BC, Canada;Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2008-05
3 ZHU Jieshun 1,2,ZHOU Guangqing2,Rong-Hua ZHANG 3,and SUN Zhaobo1 1 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 2100442 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 3 Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center(ESSIC),University of Maryland,College Park,Maryland,USA;An Improved Hybrid Coupled Model:ENSO Simulations[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2009-04
4 WEI Fengying1 and HUANG Jiayou2 1 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 1000812 Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871;A Study of Downscaling Factors of Atmospheric Circulations in the Prediction Model of Summer Precipitation in Eastern China[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2010-01
5 LANG Xian-mei,WANG Hui-jun, ZHOU Guang-qing,JIANG Da-bang (LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100029,China);Prediction of Summer Climate over China in 2002 with IAP9L-AGCM and Its Performance[J];Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology;2004-01
6 Zhao Yan, Li Xu, Yuan Chongguang and Guo Yufu (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);Quantitative Assessment and Improvement to Correction Technology on Prediction System of Short-Term Climate Anomaly[J];CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH;1999-04
7 CHEN Hong, LIN Zhao-Hui, and ZHOU Guang-Qing Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Real-Time Prediction of 2004 Summer Climate Anomalies Using IAP Dynamical Climate Prediction System[J];Climatic and Environmental Research;2005-01
8 LI Fang~(1,2),LIN Zhong-Da~(1,2),ZUP Rui-Ting~(1),and Zeng Qing-Cun~(1) 1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 2 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039;The Methods for Correcting the Summer Precipitation Anomaly Predicted Extraseasonally over East Asian Monsoon Region Based on EOF and SVD[J];Climatic and Environmental Research;2005-03
9 Lin Zhaohui, Li Xu, Zhao Yan, Zhou Guangqing, Wang Huijun, Yuan Chongguang, Guo Yufu and Zeng Qingcun (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);An Improved Short-Term Climate Prediction System and Its Application to the Extraseasonal Prediction of Rainfall Anomaly in China for 1998[J];CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH;1998-04
10 JIA Xiaolong CHEN Lijuan LI Weijing CHEN Deliang 1.National Climate Center,Laboratory for Climate Studies,CMA,Beijing 100081,China 2.Earth Science Center,Gothenburg University,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden;Statistical downscaling based on BP-CCA:Predictability and application to the winter temperature and precipitation in China.[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2010-03
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 CHENG Zhi et al(Anhui Climate Center,Hefei,Anhui 210044);Study on Establishing the Precipitation Predication Equation by the Downscaling Technique[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2011-17
2 FAN Ke Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Seasonal Forecast Model for the Number of Tropical Cyclones to Make Landfall in China[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2009-05
3 ZHOU Guang-Qing and ZHU Jie-Shun Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Impact of Subsurface Entrainment on ENSO Prediction: 1997-98 El Nio[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2009-05
4 ZENG Qing-Cun Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Progress and Challenge of the Short-Term Climate Prediction[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2009-05
5 CHEN Hong and LIN Zhao-Hui International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;The Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2009-05
6 JIA Xiao-Jing and ZHU Pei-Jun Department of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310027,China;Improving the Seasonal Forecast of Summer Precipitation in China Using a Dynamical-Statistical Approach[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2010-02
7 ZHU Ya-Li1,2 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;A Seasonal Prediction Model for the Summer Rainfall in Northeast China Using the Year-To-Year Increment Approach[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2011-03
8 GUO Yan 1,2,LI Jian-Ping 1,and LI Yun 3 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 3 Mathematics,Informatics and Statistics,Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,Wembley,Western Aus-tralia 6913,Australia;Statistically Downscaled Summer Rainfall over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2011-04
9 KE Zong-Jian 1,ZHANG Pei-Qun 1,CHEN Li-Juan 1,and DU Liang-Min 2 1 National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China 2 Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074,China;An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2011-05
10 LU Ri-Yu 1 , LI Chao-Fan 1 , Se-Hwan YANG 1 , and Buwen DONG 2 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom;The Coupled Model Predictability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon with Different Leading Times[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2012-03
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Bo Li and Tianjun Zhou 1 LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China. 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China.;El Nino-Southern Oscillation-related principal interannual variability modes of early and late summer rainfall over East Asia in sea surface temperature-driven atmospheric general circulation model simulations[A];[C];2012
2 Zeng Qingcun, Lin Zhaohui, Zhou Guangqing Wang Huijun, Zhu Jiang and Yuan Chongguang (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029);Extra-Seasonal Climate Prediction by Using Dynamical Climate System Model[A];[C];2002
3 Yan Xiao-dong (Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment Climate, Guiyang, 550002,China);EXPLANATION AND APPLICATION OF DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PRODUCTS IN WINTER TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL PREDICTION OVER GUIZHOU[A];[C];2006
4 Yan Xiao-dong (Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment Climate, Guiyang, 550002,China);EXPLANATION AND APPLICATION OF DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PRODUCTS IN WINTER TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL PREDICTION OVER GUIZHOU[A];[C];2006
5 YUE Xu1,2 and WANG Huijun1 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029 2 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;The Application of the CCM3/NCAR Radiation Scheme in IAP-AGCM[A];[C];2008
6 Wang Ji1 Wang Chengwei2 Xu Xiuhong2 (1 Beijing climate regional center ,100089 2 Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, 150030);The application of forecast in monthly scale on SDSM downscaling method[A];[C];2009
7 Ma Fengmin Zhang Yizhi Zhang Chuanjiang Zhang Chaomei (Jiangxi Climatic Center, Nanchang 330046, China);Application of MDERF Products to Forecast in Raining Seasons of Jiangxi Based on EOF Iteration Method[A];[C];2009
8 CHEN Shao-yong 1,2 WANG Jin-song 1 GUO Jun-tin 2 XING Xiao-bin2 (1.Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Lanzhou,Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu,Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of CMA;Lanzhou,Gansu,730020,China;2.Meteorological bureau of Baiyin,Gansu,Baiyin,730900);Evolvement characteristics of the extreme highest temperature in Northwest China from 1961 to 2009 years[A];[C];2011
9 Shi Yinshan Chi Juncheng (Hebei Province Meteorological Observatory,Shjiazhuang 050021);Interpretation of Dynamics Extended range Forecast Based on SVD Iteration Scheme[A];[C];2011
10 Li Huanlian1,2,Li Qingquan2,Wang Lanning2,Dong Min2 (1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;2.National Climate Center,Beijing 100081);Extraseasonal Short-term Prediction of Summer Climate with BCC_AGCM2.0.1[A];[C];2011
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ZHENG Fei 1 and ZHU Jiang 2 1 International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Scheme for the Balanced Initial Ensemble Generation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2010-03
2 LIU Ying1,2,FAN Ke1,and WANG Hui-Jun1 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Statistical Downscaling Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2011-03
3 KE Zong-Jian 1,ZHANG Pei-Qun 1,CHEN Li-Juan 1,and DU Liang-Min 2 1 National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China 2 Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074,China;An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China[J];大气和海洋科学快报(英文版);2011-05
4 BIAN Lin-gen1,LIN Xue-chun2(1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;2.National Climate Center,China Meteorological Adminstration,Beijing 100081,China);Antarctica Sea-Ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea and China Summer Rainfall[J];Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology;2008-02
5 Wang Shaowu, Zhao Zongci (Beijing University);AN ANALYSES OF HISTORICAL DATA OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN LAST 500 YEARS IN CHINA[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;1979-04
6 Wang Hui jun; Zhou Guangqing ; Zhao Yan ( Laboralory .for Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Science and Gepohysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG ), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences);An Effective Method for Correcting the Seasonal-Interannual Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2000-02
7 Lu Riyu (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080);Atmospheric Circulations and Sea Surface Temperatures Related to the convection over the western Pacific Warm Pool on the Interannual Scale[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2001-02
8 He Jinhai Nanjing Institute of Meteorology. Nanjing 210044 ZhouBing LASG. In.vtitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 Wen Min; and Li Feng Nanjing Institute of Meteorology. Nanjing 210044;Vertical Circulation Structure, Interannual Variation Features and Variation Mechanism of Western Pacific Subtropical High[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2001-04
9 XUE Feng* GUO Pinwen2 and YU Zhihao31 Institute of Atmosphere Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000292KLME, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044 3 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093;Influence of Interannual Variability of Antarctic Sea-Ice on Summer Rainfall in Eastern China[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2003-01
10 ZHU Congwen1,2 , Chung-Kyu PARK2, Woo-Sung LEE4, and Won-Tae YUN3 1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 2Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC), Busan, Republic of Korea 3Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Republic of Korea 4Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Reanalysis, Victoria, BC, Canada;Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2008-05
【Secondary References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Se-Hwan YANG;LU Riyu;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;;Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Indices by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2014-06
2 LI Fang;LIN Zhongda;International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences;;Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2015-04
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 HUANG Maoyi\ HUANG Jiayou\ WANG Yong\ TIAN Feng (Dept.of Geophysics,Peking University,Beijing,100871);The Application of CCA in Climatic Analysis and Prediction in Recent Years[J];Acta Scicentiarum Naturalum Universitis Pekinesis;2001-01
2 Guo Qi-Yun (Institute of Geography, Academia Sinica);THE SUMMER MONSOOM INTENSITY INDEX IN EAST ASIA AND ITS VARIATION[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;1983-03
3 Huang Ronghui and Wu YifangInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica. Beijing;The Influence of ENSO on the Summer Climate Change in China and Its Mechanism[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1989-01
4 Zhang XuehongInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080;Dynamical Framework of IAP Nine-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1990-01
5 Liang XinzhongInstitute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080;Description of A Nine-Level Grid Point Atmospheric General Circulation Model[J];大气科学进展(英文版);1996-03
6 Wang Hui jun; Zhou Guangqing ; Zhao Yan ( Laboralory .for Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Science and Gepohysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG ), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences);An Effective Method for Correcting the Seasonal-Interannual Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2000-02
7 Zhou Guangqing; and Zeng Qingcun LASG. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Predictions of ENSO with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2001-04
8 Cecilia HELLSTROM AND Deliang CHEN Earth Sciences Centre, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China;Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically Downscaled Predictors: Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2003-06
9 FUWeiwei, ZHU Jiang, ZHOU Guangqing, and WANG Huijun Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039;A Comparison Study of Tropical Pacific Ocean State Estimation:Low-Resolution Assimilation vs. High-Resolution Simulation[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2005-02
10 DING Yihui SHI Xueli , LIU Yiming , LIU Yan LI Qingquan , QIAN Yongfu , MIAO Manqian ZHAI Guoqing , and GAO Kun Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 Department of Geoscience, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027;Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2006-03
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved