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《大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)》 2011-03
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A Seasonal Prediction Model for the Summer Rainfall in Northeast China Using the Year-To-Year Increment Approach

ZHU Ya-Li1,2 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 2 Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China  
Using the year-to-year increment approach,this study investigated the relationship of selected climatic elements with the increment time series of the summer rainfall between successive years in Northeast China,including the soil moisture content,sea surface temperature,500 hPa geopotential height,and sea level pressure in the preceding spring for the period 1981-2008.Two spring predictors were used to construct the seasonal prediction model:the area mean soil moisture content in Northwest Eurasia and the 500 hPa geopotential height over Northeast China.Both the cross-validation and comparison with previous studies showed that the above two predictors have good predicting ability for the summer rainfall in Northeast China.
【Fund】: supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grants 2010CB950304 and 2009CB421406;; the Special Fund for the public welfare indus-try (Meteorology) under Grant GYHY200906018;; the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant KZCX2-YW-QN202;; the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grants KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11-00
【CateGory Index】: P426.6
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