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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2001-04
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SIMULATION OF ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY SECURITY OF CHINA UNDER GLOBAL CHANGES WITH COMPLEXITY

WANG Zheng, ZHENG Yi ping & FENG Hao jie (Opening Laboratory of Cities and Environment, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China)  
The problem of economy security under the changes of global climate is paid more attention all over the world now. And its complexity and indeterminacy become a focus in research. The present paper discusses the problem of Chinese economy security under the changes of global climate in three steps. First, the complexity of changes of global climate is analyzed. Through the analysis a model could being used to evaluate the environment and economy security under the changes of global climate is obtained. This model is based on the model of Lave and Shevliakova. Second, a mathematic simulation about proportion of food demand and supply from 2025 to 2050 in China is given by SEI model. Through the simulation two conclusions are obtained. They are (1) in 2025, if food consumption level in China keeps the level of 1990 then there is no problem of food security. If food consumption level is improved then there is problem of food shortage. And the percentage of food shortage is about 7%~8%; (2) in 2050, if the population in China is in control then there is no problem of food security. Because now the population in some areas is not in control actually, in the future the proportion of food demand and supply will keep in 0.92~1.04. Third, the analysis of water problem in China based on the statistic data in 1985 is given. In the analysis a general equilibrium model is used. By the calculation and the analysis a conclusion that the affection of water under the changes of global climate could not lead to problems of economy security in China is gained.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目 (编号 :49970 0 0 8) ;; 教育部重点课题项目
【CateGory Index】: X820.4
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【Co-references】
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1 QI Xin -an(Anhui Provincial Staff and Workers' University,Hefei,Anhui,230001);A Discussion on the Multiobjective Optimization Problem of Regional Economic Planning[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural University;2001-03
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