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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2005-03
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Emergency management system based on GIS for SARS prevention in China

WANG Zheng~(1,2), LI Hua-qun~1, CHEN Jian-guo~1, CAI Di~1, LI Shan~1, WANG Ying~1, ZHENG Yi-ping~1, WU Bin~1(1 Key laboratory of Geo-information Science, Ministry of State Education of China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 2 Institute of Politics and Management Science, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100080, China)  
The present paper aims at introducing the authors' development of an emergency management system for SARS, which is based on the GIS and decision support system. The paper has also given its discussion on the organization pattern of the system and the model of the system. When discussing the working principle of the emergency management system, first of all, the suggested emergency management system is to be recognized as a type of DSS, which is suggested to reduce the influence of the likely occuring disasters. The function of the system includes the potential incidence diagnosis, dynamic estimation of the epidemic spreading, and analysis on the outcome of controlling policies. Secondly, the system needs to be based on GIS, since the disaster development is different in space (the spatial dynamics has to be analyzed in an emergency system). For this purpose, the coupling strategy based on the Component Object Model (COM) technology is also suggested to be included into the system.The model system developed in Fig.1 based on the above principle is used to predict the epidemic situation of the following month on the regional scale and to simulate the influence of regional restriction policy. Other models include: the knowledge-based model for SARS prediction by analysing climatic risk; the epidemic spreading model based on regional reciprocity, aiming at analysing the tendency of the contagion of SARS between different regions; the regional economic spillover model to estimate the influence of restriction policy on the development of regional economy, and the dynamic estimate model to predict the future epidemic situation within each region .The parameters of the above models can be predicted by Chinese facts. Finally, technical problems associated with establishing emergency system based on GIS are also discussed in the paper. The results of our work reveal that the system is feasible by joining the COM technology (MapObjects -the standard GIS component used in the system) with programming environment Visual Basic 6.0 and data base software Microsoft Access technology; the flow chart of the system mode has been given in Fig.2. For example, we explore and evaluate the SARS situation in 2003, and the results were recommended to the corresponding governmental departments.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40345004);; 上海市科委重点课题(03DZ19612);; 上海重中之重学科建设成果
【CateGory Index】: R181.8
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