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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2006-03
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Terror attack risk assessment of subway station based of game theory

ZHAO Guo-min, LIU Mao, ZHANG Qing-song, YANG Yang, WANG Li(Urban Public Safety Research Center, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China)  
The present paper aims to introduce the authors' analysis of the terrorist attack risks with the 22 stations of certain subway line and the model of the probability estimate of the target losses developed by the paper. As we know, once an attack was attempted, losses would occur with a probability such and such, and so and so. Such probability of target loss can be worked out through the calculation of the change of the defended resources, which provide optimal allocation of the defended resources to the subway station under study and the structure of the counter-terrorism emergency plan. However, since the terrorist risks differ from the natural disasters for their particular nature of the ill intent of their instigators. As a consequence, game theory can be used as an important analytic tool. And in turn, such attacks on the subway stations can be regarded as zero-sum game between the attacker and the defender.
【Fund】: “十五”国家科技攻关计划滚动课题“城市突发重大事故风险控制与应急技术研究及试点”(2004BA803B05)
【CateGory Index】: X45
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