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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2006-05
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Study on individual risks in case of large massing crowd in public venues

LI Jian-feng,LIU Mao,RAN Li-jun(Urban Public Safety Research Center,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)  
The present paper aims to bring forward an assessment model to make a quantitative analysis of the individual risks along with the exemplification of the successful application of the model.As is known,with the ever-increasing speed of the urban-area development and expansion,accidents have happened in public venues from time to time leading to human casualties and material losses.However,due to the random nature and uncertainty of such accidents and the haphazardness of multiplicity of the factors involved,it seems unlikely to quantify the individual risks to be involved in large gatherings in public venues.All the above considerations contribute to the authors' motivation of reliance on the probability statistics over such accidents in public venues and their probability distribution accordingly.That is how the paper has worked out a quantitative model based on the probability theory.Taking some statistical accidents that have happened before in the public venues as reference,it has worked out the likely-to-be procedures and measures to be applied in this model.The results of trial use prove that the model sounds reasonable and accurate to a certain extent.In addition,the paper has also highlighted the spheres where the model can be used and the points to be paid attention to in the model application.Last of all,the paper suggests taking as the individual risk of the large gathering crowds in public venues.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70373031);; “十五”国家科技攻关计划滚动课题(2004BA803B05)
【CateGory Index】: X913
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