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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2006-06
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System dynamic simulation for casualty rate of petrochemical corporation

ZHANG Jin-chun~1,WU Chao~1,HOU Jin-xiu~2,LI Ming~1(1 School of Recourse and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;2 School of Safety Science and Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China)  
This paper intends to bring forward a system dynamic simulation for the casualty rate of petrochemical enterprises in hoping to reduce the casualty rate.As is reported,it has become a more and more serious problem to strengthen its safety management and establish safety casualty-warning and preventive systems in such enterprises.So far as we know,it is the very basis to study the system dynamics,which is an advanced theory established on the feedback theory and the system control theory.Besides,the system dynamics is both a theory and a method highly adaptable to meet the changing needs for it with the time going on,especially for the systems with higher order,nonlinear or multi-feedback nature.Its biggest advantage lies in that it can integrate the qualitative control and the quantitative control into one unified.To make the system dynamics available for the actual operational practice,we have made an analysis of the underlying mechanisms of the factors likely to lead the casualty accidents.Then,a simulation model for such casualty happenings is founded on the basic system dynamics.To prove its availability,a simulation test has been designed for a sample petrochemical corporation with the results of corresponding test data provided. In addition,the trend of the casualty rate of the corporation has also been analyzed according to the testing data.And,finally,some useful recommendations are given to reduce and control the operational mis-performance rate.Thus,a comprehensive discussion and corresponding guide has been provided on how to use the simulation model scientifically and effectively based on the given theory in the petrochemical enterprises.
【CateGory Index】: X928.03
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