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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2008-06
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Simulation of water resources carrying capacity based on a system dynamic model in Dalian

XU Yi,SUN Cai-zhi(College of Urban and Environment,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China)  
This paper would like to introduce the author's system dynamic model to be used for the study of water resources carrying capacity of Dalian. The so-called system dynamic model of water resources carrying capacity has been established,which is divided into 6 sub-systems,that is,the population subsystem,industrial subsystem,agricultural subsystem,polluted water treating and reclamation subsystem,urban environment subsystem,as well as water resource exploitation subsystem. The above research model has been developed with the intention to improve water resource carrying capacity of Dalian under four various schemes,existing continuation,water saving situation,the city's economic development as well as the coordination scheme,from 2001 to 2020. The statistical and calculation results indicate that water resource carrying capacity under the existing continuation scheme seems very weak and even fails to meet the demands of socioeconomic development of the city in future. The gap between supply and demand will have increased to 11.04 billion m3 by 2020. As to the water saving scheme,the city's present water-supply carrying capacities for the industrial and agricultural production and the urban population are afraid not to reach the targeted objectives. As to the city's economic development scheme,although the industrial production values are developing rapidly to economic development from other basin schemes,water shortage has already become a big problem in the near future. It is said that the industrial production and the urban residents will have reached 952.7 billion yuan,and 4.538 million,respectively,by the year of 2020 relying on the state harmonious development scheme,for which the most important action to take is to heighten the water resources carrying capacity of Dalian.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40501013)
【CateGory Index】: TV213.4
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