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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2009-06
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Novel dynamic hazards assessment model for well blowout based on its operating state monitoring

MA Qing-chun, ZHANG Lai-bin, FAN Jian-chun (Electrical & Mechniacal Engineering Department, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)  
Through deep investigation of the underlying mechanism of the drilling process, this paper is inclined to present all the likely haphazard factors and the index factors of driUing process and their characteristic features of being highly diversified and even unpredictable. As is known, traditional methods of probabilistic hazard assessment are statistic and qualitative by nature, which fail to satisfy the demands for safety standards under new conditions. Based on the monitoring variety of the drilling fluid parameters, we have adopted a comprehensive fuzzy hierarchy assessment model by way of real time hazard probability assessment for well blowout. With the new model, five steps have been introduced in detail, including the step for setting up the hazard index system, the step for determining the index weight, the step to make qualitative and quantitative assessment of hazard index, that for comprehensive fuzzy assessment of the hazard probability of well blowout and that for modifying the hazard index and parameters. A hazard assessment software has developed based on the method mentioned above. Further more, a software has been developed based on Visual Basic 6, whose function has been given a brief introduction. The said software will enable its users gain quantitative results of hazard probabilities, though precautions should be taken to remind the operators to take proper safety measures correspondingly. Thus, it can be said that the model helps to lay out a scientific basis not only for optimization and adjustment of drilling fluid parameters and drilling engineering parameters, but also for the safety production and management in drilling process.
【Fund】: 中国石油科技创新基金项目(2008D-5006-07-01)
【CateGory Index】: TE28
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