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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2010-05
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Method of emergency resources demand forecasting based on case-based reasoning

WANG Wei, LIU Mao (Center for Urban Public Safety Research, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071 , China)  
With the development of economy and society, the human population size and property gathered in one place are increasing gradually. Tremendous losses of human life and property would happen in the accidents and natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, storms, etc.), as well as the induced secondary disasters (fire, explosion , leakage of toxic substances, etc. ) . When major natural disasters or emergency accidents happen, the best way to reduce casualties and property losses is through initializing the emergency plan and allocate the emergency resources as soon as possible. The demand forecasting is the premise and basis for emergency resources allocations. The ultimate purpose of demand forecasting is to ensure the success of the rescue action and enable the victims to safely escape from the dangers. At present, there are only limited numbers of studies regarding the emergency resource demand prediction can be found in the literature. In our study, the demand forecasting is carried out by applying case-based reasoning along with the method of risk analysis. The theoretical principle of case-based reasoning is similarity theory . This article has made use of the method to predict the emergency resource demands based on quantity, quality, and categories. The forecasted results showed that this new method is able to satisfy the requirement of emergency cases and it exhibits high potential for other practical applications. Accuracy of the proposed method can be improved by the accumulation of case database.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(70833003)
【CateGory Index】: X928.03
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