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《Journal of Safety and Environment》 2012-03
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Analysis of the valid period of regional geological hazards assessment

ZHU Ji-xiang,ZHANG Li-zhong,ZHOU Xiao-yuan,HUO Zhi-bin,LU Yan,WANG Qian,CAI Zi-zhao,SHI Lei,WANG Wei(The Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology(CAGS),Shijiazhuang 050803,China)  
The present paper intends to make an analysis of the valid period of regional geological hazards by taking Wenchuan Earthquake and a comparative study of the susceptibility assessments results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009 as the case study samples.As is known,the primary regional geological hazards assessment should be made static by nature,however,the factors affecting the geological hazards are various and evolutionary,which may cause a scaling problem in time and make the assessment results totally invalid,and even may lead to unpredictable hazards.With human activity and interference getting more and more rampant and uncontrollable,there is an aggravating tendency to the problem of the unpredictable latent risks.Therefore,it is urgent for the geological and seismic scientists to study and find the valid period of such hazards and make available assessments.The so-called valid period of regional geological hazards assessment refers to the prediction of the periodical change and the likely-to-happen regional geological hazards.And for this purpose,it is essential to analyze the factors affecting the periodical evolution,change and likely-to-happen hazards,which mainly involve the background and conditions of geological seismic hazards,the scale or scope of the areas under study,the abrupt natural events and human activities concerned and so on.Such regional geological hazard assessment is mainly concerned with the internal behaviors of the time effect of regional geological activities,mainly caused by the spatial heterogeneity and time-elapsed nonlinear seismic events.This paper has thus proposed basic applications of the ways of determining the valid periods of regional geological hazard assessment by analyzing the modes and the factors impacting such period's assessment.And,finally,comparing the landslides hazard assessments of Qingchuan County before and after the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2009 and the comparison of the susceptibility assessment results of Beijing in 2001 and 2009,we have analyzed the necessity and significance of determining such hazards,and verified the appropriateness of the method to be applied to determining such sorts of hazards.
【Fund】: 全国主要城市环境地质综合评价项目(1212010535501);; 国家973重点基础研究计划项目(2010CB428800)
【CateGory Index】: P694
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