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《Journal of University of Science and Technology Liaoning》 2009-06
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Prediction model of compulsory education population based on population change

LI Na1,LI Ji-huai2 (1.School of Science,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114051,China;2.Research Institute of Higher Education,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114051,China)  
Based on the theory of partial differential equations,by using the general principles of mechanism analysis and data fitting,the model of population distribution and density function in cities,towns and contrysides was established,which eventually establish the prediction models of prediting the number of compulsory education students at school.Based on the model and by using goodness of fit test to predict the number of people each year over the next 10 years at the stage oflompulsory education in China's cities,towns,villages the short-term population trends of population change at the stage of China compulsory education were predicted.The number of students at school steadily decreased till2009;On the basis of overal implementation of a comprehensive compulsory education in 2010,the number of compulsory education students began to grow again;in 2020 it will rearch the number of 125.3657 million people which will be basically in the state of stability.
【Fund】: 辽宁省“十一五”教育科学规划项目(JG08DB070)
【CateGory Index】: G522.3
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