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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 1996-S1
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Response of Permafrost to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Wang Shaoling, Zhao Xiufeng, Guo Dongxing and Huang Yizhi(Observation and Research Station of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, LIGG, CAS, 730000)  
The climate in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has been becoming warmer since the late 1970's. The obvious warmer winter and smaller annual range of air temperature have resulted in a regional permafrost degradation in the pla teau. The evidences which include the decrease of seasonal thawing depth, increase of seasonal freezing depth and the thawed layer are found between the active layer and the underlain permafrost in the regions near the permafrost lower altitudinal limit or near taliks. The ground te mperatures from surface to 40 m depth, especially to 20 m depth, have been affected by the climate warming in various degrees. Comparision of the ground temperature in the past 15-20 years shows that the mean annual ground temperatures rise about 0.3-0.5℃ in the regions of seasonal frozen ground, river taliks and island permafrost regions where ice content of soil is relatively small. In the regions underlain continuously by permafrost, the mean annual ground temperature rises about 0.1-0.3 ℃. According to the research results of climate prediction and taking the man-made factors into consideration, the permafrost changes in the following 50 years are estimated in the paper. Given a 1 ℃ air temperature warming in another 50 years, the mean annual ground temperature in the permafrost region will increase by about 0.4-0.5 ℃ ; the lower limit of permafrost will rise about 150- 200 m; most of the present permafrost of which the thickness is less than 10 m will be melted; the main body of the present island permafrost will disappear, leaving traces of frozen ground lay deeply under the ground surface (of which the upper table will be deeper than 10 m); and the total area of permafrost will diminish dramastically.
【CateGory Index】: P642.14
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