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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 1996-S1
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Numerical Simulation of the Future Change of Thirmal Regime in the High Temperature Permafrost of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under Climate Warming

Li Shuxun and Cheng Guodong(State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, LIGG, CAS, 730000)  
When annual average surface temperatures equal to 0.5℃, 0.0℃and -0.5℃ in the permafrost region of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the future change of thirmal regime is simulated under the continuous climate warming at 0.04℃ / year. The results show that, when initial annual average surface temperatures are 0.5, 0.0 and -0.5℃ respectively, the annual averaged ground temperatures of the depth at 14 meters are 0.41,-0.11 and-0.59℃, and the thickness of permafrost is 4.5, 16.8 and 29.0 meters correspondingly. 50 years later, when annual averaged initial surface temperature equals to 0.5℃ , the permafrost will be degraded, and when annual averaged initial surface temperature equals to 0.0℃ and-0.5℃ , the permafrost will be separated along the vertical direction. After the link of permafrost is destroyed, degrading rate of the top table of permafrost will gradually increase with time. The annual averaged ground temperature at the depth of 14 meters will separately become 1.76, 0.0 and 0.0℃ for annual average initial surface temperatures 0.5,0.0 and-0.5℃.
【CateGory Index】: P642.14
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