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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 1996-S1
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A Statistical Forecasting Model of the Variations in Active Layer Influenced by Snow Cover: Examplified by a Study in Northeastern China

Gao Xingwang, Zhou Youwu and Wang Yinxue(Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 730000)  
Seasonal stable snow cover has significant influence on the temperature regime of frozen ground and the variation in the active layer. Nevertheless the calculation of temperature field in the frozen ground may become very complex when taking the influence of snow cover into consideration. Owing to the lack of density and thermal conductivity data at meterological stations, the influence of the snow cover is always neglected in computation of the temperature field in the frozen ground.Based on the yearly mean values observed at 71 meterological stations in the northeastern three provinces and the partial area of Inner Mongolia of China in the past 30 years (1951-1980), choosing air temperature, amplitude of air temperature and the maximum snow depth in January as the independent variables, and taking the temperature at active layer table as forecasting objective variable, a model which forecasts the temperature variation influenced by the snow cover at the active layer table is developed by the linear multi regression method in this paper. Verification of the forecasting model has been made by the observed data over the latter ten years (1981-1990) at the representative five stations, the comparison of errors shows that if various climatic warming scenarios in the future can be predicted, quantitative answers for response extent of the active layer to the coming climatic warming will be given on the basis of present experience.
【CateGory Index】: P343.6
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