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《JOURNAL OF GLACIOLGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY》 1999-02
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A Scenario-Based Framework for Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Water Carrying Capacity

XU Zhongmin(Stale Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering,LIGG,CAS,Lanzhou 730000)  
This paper describes the scenariobased framework for multi criteria decision analysis in water carrying capacity. Scene analysis play two roles in the process of multi criteria decision analysis: choosing scenarios to decision-maker and identifying potential compromises to various interest groups in formulating individual preference orders. The overall procedure and some experiences in applying it with the text of regional water resource planning in the middle of Heihe River are discussed.The water carrying capacity model in Heihe valley consist of six sub-model such as macro-economic model, population model, land resources subject model, water resources development and utilization model, water environment model and water projects investment model. In accordance with specific conditions of Heihe valley, the table of L9(34) was adapted to establish the multiple criteria decision-making model in Zhangye district, three scene was designed according to variation of water-supplyed in Jiuquan district.
【Fund】: “九五”国家重点科技攻关资助!96-912-03-03
【CateGory Index】: P331
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