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《JOURNAL OF GLACIOLGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY》 1999-03
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A Study of the Fractal Characteristics of Jkulhlaups from the Lake Mertzbakher, Tianshan

CHEN Ya-ning 1,2 , YANG Si-quan 1 , LI Wei-hong 1 (1 Xinjiang Institute of Geography, CAS, Urumqi Xinjiang Uygu Autonomous Region 830011, China; 2 Northwest University, Xi'an Shanxi 710069, China)  
Jkulhlaups have stochastic feature and uncertainty Based on the statistical data of 37 peak discharges of Jkulhlaups from the Lake Mertzbakher of Tianshan Mountains in recent 40 years, the fractal characteristics of the Jkulhlaups are analyzed from a time series of the Jkulhlaups, and the correlation dimension (D 2) and Kolomogorov entropy are calculated by using the methods of nonlinear dynamic system rebuilding The experimental results show that the temporal distribution of the Jkulhlaups has fractal characteristics and the complex hydrological phenomena of Jkulhlaups may result from the evolution of inherent nonlinear dynamic system The obtained conclusions will be a scientific basis for establishing the time-series forecast model of Jkulhlaups
【Fund】: 中国科学院 “西部之光”资助项目
【CateGory Index】: P343.6
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