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Scenario of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Northwest China Due to Human Activity in the 21~(st) Century

XU Ying,\ DING Yi-hui,\ ZHAO Zong-ci (National Climate Center, China Administration of Meteorology, Beijing 100081, China)  
Scenario of air surface temperature (\%T\-\%s) and precipitation (\%P\%\-r) changes in Northwest China due to human activity in the 21st century was studied based on the simulations of seven atmosphere-ocean coupled models. They all have been run from the 20 th to the 21 st centuries. Results of the simulations showed a significant warming of 4\^2~6\^0 ℃\5100 a\+\{-1\} due to both increasing of greenhouse gases (GG) and increasing of greenhouse gases plus sulfate aerosol (GS). The warming in Northwest China is consistent with that in whole China and the globe, while it has a higher degree. \%P\%\-r changes in Northwest China are more complex than that of \%T\%\-s. In winter, both GG and GS experiments showed an increase in \%P\%\-r. But in summer, \%P\%\-r might increase firstly before mid-21 st and then decrease in the later half of the century in GG experiments. In GS experiments, the summer \%P\%\-r showed a generally decrease in the whole time period. After all, mean precipitation in the area might increase by 15~39 mm\5100 a\+\{-1\}. Spatial patterns of \%T\%\-s and \%P\%\-r were also analyzed in this paper. The results indicated that the warming is more significant in North China with higher latitude in the 21 st century, especially in Northwest China. As for the seasons, \%T\%\-s increases more in winter than in the others. The annual \%P\%\-r in Northwest China will increase in the future 30 years in both GG and GS experiments, with a greater increase in Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and mid-part of Inner Mongolia. \%P\%\-r increase is higher in spring and winter than that in summer and autumn. It should be noticed that many uncertainties exist which come from both the models and the projection scenarios.
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