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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2004-03
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Modeling the Response of Runoff to Climate Change

ZENG Tao,HAO Zhen-chun,WNAG Jia-hu (Water Resources Development and Utilization Laboratory, Hehai University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210098, China)  
A single-direction coupling system is founded in this paper, including GCM s output data, down-scale model and distributed hydrologic model, and then the system is applied in Shanxi Province as a example to study the response of runoff to climate change. Data from the five GCMs (HADLEY, GFDL, CCCma, CRIRO and CCSR) are used in this paper. The hydrologic model calculates by not only distributed runoff generation and conflux, but also distributed evaporation. An integrated parameter (Kc) is used as a proxy of all factors, except climatic ones, which effect evaporation in each cell. The parameter is determined from observed data. A modified coefficient named (Ks) is used to express the effect of moisture to evapotranspiration. A software (CNT) is put forward to get an emulational river net from DEM. It is revealed from comparing the GCMs outputs with the observations in Shanxi Province that temperature can be fitted well, but precipitation from the GCMs is a qualitative one only, which can express a long-term variation trend. Through some necessary studies, a most possible changing trend of water resources in Shanxi Province is gained, which shows a decreasing trend in the next 50 years.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G199043400)资助
【CateGory Index】: P333
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