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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2004-06
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Possible Change of Runoff over the Upper Yellow RiverBasin under Global-Warming Scenarios

LAN Yong-chao~1, DING Yong-jian~1, ZHU Yun-tong~2, MA Jian\|hua~2, WEI Zhi~1 (1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;2. Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River, Lanzhou Gansu 730030, China)  
Characteristics, possible causes and trends of variations of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin above Tangnag were analyzed, based on the hydrological and meteorological data for about 50-year at some observation stations. The results indicate that the variations of temperature in the basin possess an obvious relationship corresponding with global warming and temperature. Runoff in the upper Yellow River has been decreasing continually since the end of 1980s due to the rising temperature and the decreasing precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation. In the future decades, the runoff in the basin will largely decrease under the conditions of temperature rising obviously and precipitation decreasing greatly, whereas it will increase under the condition of temperature immovability and a great increase in precipitation, and the increase range of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow, glacier and frozen soils.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX1 10 03)资助
【CateGory Index】: P339
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