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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2005-01
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Variation Trend of Precipitation and Its Impact on Water Resources in China during Last 50 Years (Ⅱ) : Monthly Variation

YE Bai-sheng~(1), LI Chong~(2), YANG Da-qing~(3), DING Yong-jian~(1), SHEN Yong-ping ~(1) (1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China; 2.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; 3. Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbank Alaska 99775, USA)  
In this paper the changing trends of monthly precipitation over China during the last 50 years are analyzed based on the long-term precipitation data at 678 meteorological stations in China, and the response of river runoff to climate change are also analyzed based on the monthly runoff data at the main hydrological stations of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Songhua River/Amur River by using the linear regression methodology. It is found that the monthly variation of precipitation demonstrates an obvious region-dependence. A generally decreasing trend is mainly in the eastern region of China from August to December, and an increasing trend is in South China from January to March. The contradiction between water supply and demand during fall and winter becomes more and more serious owing to the obvious decrease of river runoff in the dry season caused by the uneven change in precipitation within one year, and especially because of the constant decrease of precipitation from August to December, and the discharge increase due to increase in precipitation in flood period lead to more floods. In addition, the earlier snowmelt process in the spring due to warming climate in the upper Yangtze River and the Yellow River, originated all from the Tibetan Plateau, leads to an increase of runoff in the two rivers in snowmelt period. The long-term trends in discharge at the control stations in the three rivers during 1951_1998 show positive from January to April, but negative from June to December, except for an increasing trend in discharge at Datong station in the lower Yangtze River in July, at Tangnag Station in the upper Yellow River in June and at Harbin Station in the Songhua River in August. This is caused by precipitation change, earlier snowmelt due to global warming, and human activities such as irrigation and regulation of hydropower stations.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(49971022) ;; 中国科学院知识创新工程方向项目 (KZCX3 SW 345);; 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所引进国外出人才基金项目(2004116)资助
【CateGory Index】: P468.024
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