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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2005-04
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Application of R/S on Forecast of Runoff Trend in the Water-Exporting Regions of the First Stage Project of the Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme

MEN Bao-hui,LIU Chang-ming,XIA Jun,LIU Su-xia,LIN Zhong-hui(Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China)  
According to the first stage project of the western route of the south-to-north water transfer scheme, water of 4 billions m3 transfers annually from six branches of the Yalong River and Dadu River to the Yellow River. The transferred water accounts for 60%70% of the total river runoff in the water-exporting regions, and the remnant acts as eco-environment water of the channels. Changing trends of runoff in these regions relate to the effect of the transfer project. With the development of the theoretical and practical research of fractal theory in China, the rescaled range analysis, which proposed by Harold E Hurst in 1965 and called R/S analysis by Benoit B Mandelbrot in 1969, becomes an important analytical method for time series. The changing trends of runoff in these six rivers are analyzed by using the rescale range method (R/S). The results show that the Hurst coefficients are 0.4090, 0.3884, 0.4487, 0.4271, respectively, in Chuo Sijia Hydrology Station and others, showing the trends are of anti-persistence. The runoff of Garz Station and Zumuzu Station will increase, but those of Zhuba Station and Chuosijia Station will decrease. These are disadvantageous to the transfer project. This primary study provides an idea and gist about run-off analysis for the first stage project of the western route of the south-to-north water transfer scheme.
【Fund】: 黄河水利委员会勘测规划设计研究院项目“南水北调西线一期工程引水枢纽下游生态环境需水量研究”;; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G19990436)资助
【CateGory Index】: TV121
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