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Prediction of Groundwater Level in the Irrigating Areas of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River

JI Xi-bin~1,KANG Er-si~1,CHEN Ren-sheng~1,ZHAO Wen-zhi~2,JIN Bo-wen~1,2,ZHANG Zhi-hui~1,2 (1.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;2.Linze Inland River Basin Comprehensive Research Station,Chinese Ecosystem Network Research,Linze Gansu 734200,China)  
In this paper,based on the Person's seasonal index theory,using 1 728-month data on groundwater level in the period of 1985-2002 from 8 wells,which conducted in Pingchuan,Banqiao,Yanuan and Liaoquan irrigating areas,the groundwater level prognostic equations for different wells were established,which were applied to predict the short-term groundwater level in the irrigating areas of the middle reaches of Heihe River.The prediction shows that,in the period of 1985-2002,the number of month with fitting error of the groundwater level prognostic equation less than 0.05 m accounts for 38.33% of total tested number of month,and that less than 0.10 m accounts for 90% of the total,but that exceeding 0.25 m accounts only for 2.00%.Furthermore,the model of predicting groundwater level was tested by 96-month data from the 8 wells in different irrigating areas in 2003,showing that the prediction accuracy is in direct proportion to the significance of correlation coefficient.It is found that the number of month with predicted error of groundwater level less than 0.05 m accounts for 34.46% of the total predicted number of month,and that less than 0.10 m accounts for 95.83% of the total,but that exceeding 0.25 m accounts only for 2.00%. Therefore,it is concluded that the model of predicting groundwater level with the help of the Person's season's index theory is valid to predict groundwater level in the irrigating areas of the middle reaches of Heihe River.
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