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The Future Variations of Land Use and Land Coverage in Arid Regions,Modeled in Three Scenarios of Water Resources——a Case Study in Zhangye Municipality in the Heihe River Basin

ZHANG Hua1,ZHANG Bo1,Peter Verburg2(1.Geography and Environment College of Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China;2.Department of Environmental Science,Wageningen University,P.O.Box 37,6700 AA Wageningen,the Netherlands)  
In this thesis,the advanced model of "CLUE-S" is applied to model land use and land coverage change in Zhangye Municipality.The modeling period is from 2000 to 2020.The modeling builds 3 kinds of scenarios according to water resource restriction,namely,the model is carried out under the conditions of available water resources of 18×108 m3,26.5×108 m3 and 35×108 m3,respectively,in this region.The base map is the land use map from TM image of 2000.And 10 kinds of driving factors,representing import contribution to LUCC in this area are chosen,which are produced with ArcView spatial analysis means.Then the weighting coefficient(β) of each land use is analyzed with SPSS10.0.The modeling conclusions are: 1)the area of agrarian is decreasing in all the 3 scenarios;2)the decreased agrarian is negatively correlated with available water resources;3)woodland and grassland are also increasing in the three scenarios,with a positive correlation to the available water resource;4)the change of water-cover area is not visible in the three scenarios;5) the city and town area do not change in Scenario 1,but increase 19.5% in Scenario 2 and 59.19% in scenario 3,so the areas of city and town also are in positive correlation with available water resources;6) the wasteland is largely decreasing.
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