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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2008-04
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Runoff Changes in Aksu River Basin during 1956-2006 and Their Impacts on Water Availability for Tarim River

WANG Guo-ya1,SHEN Yong-ping2,SU Hong-chao3,WANG Jin4,MAO Wei-yi5,GAO Qian-zhao2,WANG Shun-de4(1.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,CAREERI,CAS,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;2.Cold and Arid Regions Environmentaland Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;3.Xinjiang Hydrology andWater Resources Bureau,rümqi Xinjiang 830000,China;4.Aksu Hydrology and Water Resource Bureau,Aksu Xinjiang 843000,China;5.Xinjiang Climate Center,rümqi Xinjiang 830002,China)  
Based on the 1956-2006 runoff data from the Aksu River Basin,the characteristics and trends of runoff variation were analyzed.It was found that runoff presented an increasingly significant trend in the last 50 years in the Aksu River Basin.Glacier water is considered the main contributor.The runoff and high altitude temperatures began to increase eminently from the mid-1990s.The snowlines of the glacier system will readjust if the 0 ℃ level height exceeds the altitude of the distribution of the largest glacier areas,which will bring a great deal of glacier water and a possible occurrence in the reversal of runoff from more to less.Over the past 10 years,climate warming has resulted in significant snow cover and glacier wastage,with precipitous occurrences in flooding along with an increase in magnitude.The increase in runoff mitigates the drought during the spring,to a certain extent,but also brings about flood disasters.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411507);; 国家自然科学基金项目(40771047);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-127)资助
【CateGory Index】: P333
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