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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2009-03
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Analyses of the Durative and Tendency of Annual Runoff in the Headwaters of the Tarim River in the Recent 50 Years

FU Li-Xin1,2,CHEN Ya-ning1,3,LI Wei-hong1,XU Chang-chun1,HE Bin1(1.Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment,rümqi Xingiang 830011,China;2.Xinjiang Investigation,Design and Research Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,rümqi Xingiang 830000,China;3.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,rümqi Xinjiang 830011,China)  
Based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests on the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation and annual runoff from five hydrological stations in the headwaters of Tarim River from 1957 to 2003,Hurst indexes were analyzed by means of R/S method to analyze the statistical characteristics of durative and tendency of runoff.It is found that due to the increasing temperature in the basin,the annual runoff in the Aksu River had an obviously increasing tendency,and the persistence of the tendency was very obvious;the annual runoff in the Hotan River had an insignificant tendency of decreasing,and a random variation will be strong in the future;the annual runoff in the Yarkand River also had an insignificant tendency of increasing,and a reverse persistence and a randomness will coexist in the future.
【Fund】: 中国科学院重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-127);; 国家自然科学基金项目(40671014);; 国家科技支撑项目(2006BAC01A03)资助
【CateGory Index】: P333.1
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