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《Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology》 2014-01
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Variation features and prediction of the topsoil(0~20-cm) ground temperature of spring in Heilongjiang Province

LI Shuai;WANG Ping;CHEN Li;JIANG Lixia;WANG Liangliang;GONG Lijuan;Heilongjiang Research Institute of Meteorological Science;Harbin Meteorological Observatory;  
Based on the data of daily mean air temperature and topsoil ground temperature( 0-cm,10-cm and20-cm) in spring( March to May) from 74 weather stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1981 to 2012,the temporal-spatial characteristics of the topsoil ground temperature in spring are analyzed. According to the spatial distribution of EOF2,the south area and the north area are defined in the province. The main conclusions are as follows: The topsoil ground temperature of spring in the province has obvious annual fluctuation. More specifically,the temperature plunged to the lowest point in 1987 and to the peak in 2008.Despite the fluctuation,the topsoil ground temperature from 1981 to 2012 had increased. How ever,there w ere nine years w ith the topsoil ground temperature low er than the normal since 1991. There is a significant positive correlation betw een the ground temperatures at 10-cm depth and at 0-cm or 20-cm depth. The topsoil begins to thaw in March and the ground temperature at 10-cm depth stands at 6 ℃ mainly in April by adopting a 5-day running mean method. Taking the air temperature and the 20-cm ground temperature as tw o factors,the 10-cm ground temperatures are predicted by using the dual linear regressive model from 1981 to 2012 for every w eather observations in Heilongjiang Province. The absolute error averaged over the province is 1. 05 ℃ and the error in April is the minimum among three months of spring. The average absolute error is 1. 05 ℃ and the maximum error is 1. 9 ℃ for a prediction of 10-cm ground temperature of spring,2013.
【Fund】: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306036;GYHY201206024)资助
【CateGory Index】: S152.8
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