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THE MULTIPLE TIME-SERIES MODEL AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO ECONOMIC SECTOR IN CHINA

Li Zegao Zhang Mingxing ( Institute of Quantitive Econmics )  
The application of the TAR ( Threshold Autoregressive ) model has yielded good results. The conception of limit cycle is introduced in order to explain the characteristics of threshold autoregressive model. The purpose is to show that under certain conditions threshold autoregressive model can describe the random system of periodical regularity of more complicacy. TAR Model is used to analyze the increment speed and accumulation rate of the national income of China.
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