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《Northern Horticulture》 2015-18
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Consumption Characteristics and Potential Prediction of Chinese Walnuts in Domestic Market

DANG Zhuanzhuan;MA Huilan;College of Economics and Business,Xinjiang Agricultural University;  
Walnut is one of the most important dried fruits in China;Recent years,with the fast development of the economy,people's living standard has been improved and people begin to pay more attention to balance nutrition diet.As with nutrition and health care value of fruit,walnut was favored by the vast number of consumers,and the consumption of Chinese walnut kept rising in the market,whose potential consumption in domestic market would be great.This research firstly calculated the consumption of walnuts with the Production and Marketing Balance Method,and analysed the characteristics in consumption change of Chinese walnut,then predicted its consumption and production in the future market with the Exponential Smoothing Method.Assuming that regardless of the import and export of Chinese walnut,by analyzing the gap between supply and demand,we concluded that the gap between supply and demand of Chinese walnut would be growing ranging from 2.02×104 t in the year 2013 to 10.23×104 t in 2020 and it would have huge consumption potential of walnut in the future Chinese market.
【Fund】: 2014新疆自治区特色林果业发展财政专项资助项目
【CateGory Index】: F323.7
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