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《Acta Scicentiarum Naturalum Universitis Pekinesis》 2003-S1
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The Mathematical Model of China Population after 1980 and Projection

WANG Yan MA Boqiang (Institute of Theoretical Physics School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871)  
Based on the LESLIE Matrix as the dynamic function, we built up the mathematical model of the china population development since the adoption of “Family Planning Policy”. A few assumptions are made and justified by the Census Data. With this model, we could accurately estimate the yearly age distribution pattern of China population from 1980 to 1998. By modifying the relevant parameters and input, we further calculate the population age distribution in 2015 with and without adoption of “a spouse can have two children if the two parties of the spouse are both the only child in their family”. This model could be used, through adapting its parameters, to calculate and project population development under some different social conditions.
【Fund】: JUN-ZHENG基金(李政道教授资助 )项目
【CateGory Index】: C924.24
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