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《Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis》 2009-06
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Driving Mechanism of Human Forces to Urban Ecological Water Requirements in Bao'an,Shenzhen

MAO Xiaoling1,TIAN Kun1,LI Jingping2,LI Tianhong1,LIU Yongwei11.Department of Environmental Engineering,Peking University,Key Lab of Water and Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,Beijing 100871;2.College of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872  
The interruption of human with the urban ecosystems will change the land use structure dramatically and result in deterioration of environmental quality as well as the remarkable change of ecological water requirements.Based on the case study of Bao'an,Shenzhen,this paper presents the quantitative relationship between urban ecological water requirements(UEWR) and the characteristic index for land use structure(SI).The driving mechanism of human activities to the land use change and UEWR is studied by Partial Least Squares Regression model.The estimation results indicate the significant negative correlation between UEWR and SI.The human driving forces can explain 50%~90% of the deviation of the land use,especially more than 90% of the urban construction area and SI.The explanation ability of the same driving forces to the ecological water requirements are 60%~80%.The coefficients of the regression model represent the weight of the driving forces,among which the population is of the most important contribution.Through the same human driving mechanism,the UEWR can be explained and predicted by the simple index of SI.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2007CB407202)资助
【CateGory Index】: X171;TV213.4
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