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《Journal of Beijing University of Technology》 2009-07
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Accident Prediction Model of Freeway

ZHONG Lian-de1,2,SUN Xiao-duan1,CHEN Yong-sheng1,HE Yu-long1,LIU Xiao-ming1(1.Key Lab of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;2.Research Institute of Highway,Ministry of Communications,Beijing 100088,China)  
On the basis of section division and influence factors' analysis and the collected data of freeway Accident Prediction Model was established with Generalized Linear Regression method.Through comparing the regression results of Poisson,Negative Binomial,Zero-inflated Poisson and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial 4 kinds of statistical models,the Negative Binomial distribution model was chosen to be the best APM finally.The elasticity analysis for determining the marginal effects of the independent variables was introduced,and the results indicated that environmental variables and traffic flow variables have great influence on freeway accident.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50778007);; 交通部科技项目(200431822333-01);; 交通部公路科学研究院科研创新和人才培养项目
【CateGory Index】: U491.31
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